Well, that’s that then. A whole year, and now decade past. Seems like just yesterday I was a little kid, and now I have passed (gracefully I hope) into my third decade. In what has become an annual January 1st tradition around here (see 08,07,06) I make a number of predictions for the year ahead, and also see how I did the year before.
2009 was a rough year in many ways, it capped off the warmest decade on record. The economy fell apart, the country is in two wars, people learned the folly of “magic money”, and for most of the last decade we have done little to save the human species from the greatest challenge it has ever faced. But things are looking up, we have new leadership, its a new decade, the economy seems to be reshaping to fit into a greener future, and who knows maybe I can finally figure out my personal life.
Lets get to it. Last years predictions were:
1. Cape Wind will get approved. Seriously 2009 is the year. They are so damn close I can taste it.
2. The horrible economy will affect the growth of the renewable energy market. Look for a slowdown in wind and solar.
3. The price of oil will rocket right back up in the summer of 09, look for it to once again top $150 dollars a barrel.
4. The pace of global warming will began to accelerate as feedback loops intensify. The arctic will be ice free this summer, or damn close. The northwest passage should once again open next summer.
5. Obama will (hopefully) make renewable energy and efficiency infrastructure projects a major component of his stimulus package.
6. Troops will start to come home from Iraq in large numbers before the end of 2009.
7. The financial turmoil will continue leading to millions of people loosing their jobs, massive downturns in global production, deaths, famines, and increased problems world wide. I predict 2009 to be a very not happy year for a large number of people.
8. Look for major legal action to be taken against prominent Bush administration people. If we are really lucky, Bush or Cheney might even be included in the mess.
9. Look for major breakthroughs in efficiency technology when it comes to lighting and solar panels. Specifically solar panels that produce energy cheaper than coal, oil, or wind. Look for LED technology to slowly start replacing CFL technology.
10. I will build my first bicycle.
Like I said I am no crystal ball, but I feel I got 2,4,5,6,7,9,10 more or less correct.
The ones I got wrong were 1,3,8
1: Cape wind STILL HASN’T BEEN APPROVED (I can not believe that shit), but it has finalized its agreement to sell power and both the governor of Mass. and the federal government want it built, Senator Kennedy one of the projects biggest foes passed away, and new polls show a vast increase in the demand for the project, so its only a matter of time.
3: Oil didn’t skyrocket this summer in price, instead the world wide global economic melt down actually led to a decrease in oil demand, lowering the price. The price might not have rocketed to record highs again, but it has been creeping up steadily for the last half of the year while the amount of money people made went down. The steady creep in price combined with the drop in disposable income has basically left most Americans in the same spot there were when oil prices were moderately insane.
8: While some Bush era people did see court, not nearly as many as I would have liked for me to call this a correct guess.
My predictions for 2010 are:
1. Cape wind WILL BE APPROVED (I am going to predict this till it is correct), all the signs point to it being approved this year, this is the year!
2. Democrats in the house (and maybe senate) will attempt to pass a climate bill, I give it a 40% chance of passing, and 30% chance of doing any good if it does.
3. China and the USA will come to some legally binding agreement on climate change gasses.
4. The economy will continue to sputter, look for bright spots in the renewable energy and efficiency market.
5. The mid-term elections will leave the democrats slightly weakened, but still with majorities in the house and senate.
6. I will ride my bicycle more than 4000 miles this year, with at least one long fully bicycle powered trip across country.
7. Some sort of major melting event will occur this year, I hope to god it isn’t the west antarctic ice sheet, most likely it will be a ice free arctic this summer.
8. At least one conflict will have its roots based in climate change.
9. 2010 will be in the top 5 hottest years on record
Once again I find myself making mostly negative predictions. I don’t do this out of a sense of pessimism, simply with eyes fully opened to the reality we live in. A world rich with problems is a world rich with opportunity for solutions. I am convinced humanity will find these solutions and in the process built a sustainable solution for humanity to move forward into a future filled with a positive outlook.
Happy new year everyone, may 2010 bring you a year filled with love and happiness.