The situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating.

And so it begins… You know when I used to work for FedEx loading trucks the boxes would sometimes get stuck in the machine that pushed them into trucks. One second you would be frantically loading hundreds of boxes and the next nothing. You would look up and take one look at the mess and scream “CLUSTER FUCK TRUCK FIVE!” Cluster fucks were dangerous, the weight of the boxes stuck above you was enough to crush you to death, you had to be very careful that you didn’t let them get too big or they were impossible to fix without shutting the line down, bad news.

Iraq is the biggest cluster fuck in U.S. history. We have let so many problems pile up that it’s almost impossible to fix any of them now. If we stay we lose soldiers, and Iraqis die. If we leave we lose what little credibility we have left, and more Iraqis die. If we draw down our forces not only will a civil war fill the power vacuum but there is a good chance terror cells will take over threatening American interests and safety, and even more Iraqis die. If we increase the amount of troops, more soldiers will be in harms way, we drain our already over stretched finances and military, and more Iraqis and Americans will most likely die.

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So now this Iraq study group report comes out and confirms what any sane person could see with there own eyes for years (Years!) now. Iraq was the most ill planned, poorly executed and most likely illegal war America has ever blundered into. We had no plan for getting in, no plan for getting out, no good reason ever turned up for why were even there in the first place. And now the wise Iraq Study Group comes and tells us all that our worst fears are true.

The challenges in Iraq are complex. Violence is increasing in scope and lethality. It is fed by a Sunni Arab insurgency, Shiite militias and death squads, al Qaeda, and widespread criminality. Sectarian conflict is the principal challenge to stability. The Iraqi people have a democratically elected government, yet it is not adequately advancing national reconciliation, providing basic security, or delivering essential services. Pessimism is pervasive.

If the situation continues to deteriorate, the consequences could be severe. A slide toward chaos could trigger the collapse of Iraq’s government and a humanitarian catastrophe. Neighboring countries could intervene. Sunni-Shia clashes could spread. Al Qaeda could win a propaganda victory and expand its base of operations. The global standing of the United States could be diminished. Americans could become more polarized.

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There is no guarantee for success in Iraq. The situation in Baghdad and several provinces is dire. Saddam Hussein has been removed from power and the Iraqi people have a democratically elected government that is broadly representative of Iraq’s population, yet the government is not adequately advancing national reconciliation, providing basic security, or delivering essential services. The level of violence is high and growing. There is great suffering, and the daily lives of many Iraqis show little or no improvement. Pessimism is pervasive.

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Iraq is vital to regional and even global stability, and is critical to U.S. interests. It runs along the sectarian fault lines of Shia and Sunni Islam, and of Kurdish and Arab populations. It has the world’s second-largest known oil reserves. It is now a base of operations for international terrorism, including al Qaeda.

Iraq is a centerpiece of American foreign policy, influencing how the United States is viewed in the region and around the world. Because of the gravity of Iraq’s condition and the country’s vital importance, the United States is facing one of its most difficult and significant international challenges in decades. Because events in Iraq have been set in motion by American decisions and actions, the United States has both a national and a moral interest in doing what
it can to give Iraqis an opportunity to avert anarchy.

It goes on for 84 pages like this. One important assumption that the report makes that I find ludicrous is that the problems in Iraq are to be passed on to the Iraqis themselves. We invaded, we blew everything to hell, we had no plan to fill the power vacuum, we removed Saddam with out a replacement, we fired the military, we couldn’t get the power back on, and we invaded for no good reason. And now we have the audacity to say “well this is the Iraqi people’s problems, they need to fix it, and we are getting the hell out of here.”

If you think gas prices are high now, just wait till the conflict in Iraq spills over into Saudi Arabia or the UAE, or Iran or Syria. So the question comes down to what we are going to do. Will Bush admit that he is a total fuck-up and change course, I doubt it.

James Baker had this to say

“I hope we don’t treat this [report] like a fruit salad, and say, ‘I like this, but I don’t like that. I like this, but I don’t like that'”

“This is a comprehensive strategy, designed to deal with this problem we’re facing in Iraq, but also designed to deal with other problems that we face in the region.”

Bush has never been one to change course. In fact all he has been saying for months if not years is that we need to “stay the course” (that is in-between declaring “mission accomplished”) Bush has set in motion a wave that will ripple in our future for decades to come.

Lost in all this are the American people. With Osama free, our civil liberties winking out one by one, and an unpopular war killing our sons and daughter daily, what are we to do?

Read the report for yourself here