The long-awaited results of the Iraq Study group are going to be release later today. They are expected to call for a change of course in Iraq. This will undoubtedly raise pressure on President Bush to do something (anything) to begin to change the situation in Iraq. Something he has been reluctant to do.
The report is not likely to suggest a timetable for troop withdrawal, but leaks point out that it does say the United States must not commit to keep large numbers of troops in Iraq. The study group will most likely advise gradually “changing” the mission of troops in Iraq. From combat to training the Iraq soldiers, with the ultimate goal of removing our troops by 2008. “When they stand up, we will stand down.” It is also expected to urge a more energetic effort to involve Iraq’s neighbors in ending violence there, including Iran and Syria, which president Bush routinely calls evil (great diplomacy there.)
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If this turns out to be true, I will be highly unimpressed. Bush has rejected establishing timetables for withdrawing troops and has said he wasn’t looking for “some kind of graceful exit out of Iraq.” I guess he would rather stick around and get even more of our sons and daughters killed.
The group’s recommendations also suggest that Iraqis must meet certain conditions, such as reconciling its sectarian factions and developing a plan to distribute oil revenues in order to continue getting U.S. support, Plante reports. In short the group recommends that they all “just get along.”
The bipartisan panel is lead by Bush family friend James Baker. It has received much media attention but is unlikely to suggest anything that Bush will be able to fit into his narrow world view. According to Bob Schieffer, “Mr. Bush will acknowledge the report, but will not adopt all of its recommendations. Instead, the president will most likely wait a couple weeks and then outline his new strategy for Iraq on national television.”
Bush may have some grand vision of final victory in Iraq, but the American people have spoken. The mid-term elections could be seen as a referendum on the Iraq war. The people think it was a bad idea, they think it was run poorly, and they want it over, now. As such political pressure and the changing of the guard in Washington is most likely to result in the removal of a significant amount of troops by late 2007.
The Iraq war has surpassed the length of American involvement in World War II, and U.S. deaths have passed 2,900. A relentless insurgency and the added complication of increased fighting between religious and ethnic factions have raised questions about whether Iraq is embroiled in a civil war and whether the U.S.-backed government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will ever be able to calm the country.