Washington, D.C.- In his State of the Union address tomorrow evening, U.S. President George W. Bush is widely expected to address the issue of climate change. As listeners tune in, the Worldwatch Institute has assembled a brief “test” they can use to judge whether the president’s
words represent a u-turn in climate policy or a “stay-the-course” nod to new political realities.

When President Bush took the oath of office six years ago, many expected a strong new policy on global warming, based in part on his campaign statements. Indeed, the president’s oil industry background gave him a “Nixon-to-China” opportunity to exercise bold leadership on climate change. Today, amid melting ice sheets, growing public demand for
action, and major policies recently enacted in California and the European Union, President Bush has another chance to make the United States a leader in solving the climate problem-not just in producing the gases that cause it.

State and local governments are showing the way. Nearly 350 U.S. cities-home to more than 54 million Americans-have joined the U.S. Mayors’ Climate Protection Agreement, committing them to reducing their emissions and lobbying for a national climate policy. And California,
together with eight northeastern states, is planning to place a “cap” on total emissions of greenhouse gases, requiring major polluters to either reduce their emissions or purchase emissions permits from other companies that do.

As Worldwatch’s recently released report, State of the World 2007: Our Urban Future, suggests, local governments and stakeholders have emerged as pioneers of groundbreaking policies to address the climate issue. In the United States, these local initiatives have far surpassed the actions of the national government.

The U.S. Senate and House of Representatives are poised for action on climate change. But whether-and how-the nation’s president answers the following questions in tomorrow night’s speech will be the real test of whether he too will be a “decider” when it comes to the largest single problem the world now faces.

• 1) Does President Bush join the scores of presidents, governors,
  mayors, and CEOs who recognize the unambiguous scientific evidence of
  climate change, and does he acknowledge the magnitude of the problem
  facing the United States and the world?
• 2) Does the President clearly state the need for U.S. leadership on
  global warming, and does he recognize that the most effective way to
  secure action by other nations-in particular China and India-is for the
  United States to reduce its own emissions?
• 3) Is the administration ready to embrace the kind of carbon
  “cap-and-trade” system already adopted by several U.S. states and the
  European Union and embraced by a host of congressional leaders,
  including Senator John McCain?
• 4) Does the State of the Union language go beyond the rhetorical
  support of renewable energy given in last year’s “addicted-to-oil”
  address? And is President Bush ready to advocate strong policy action
  such as long-term extension of tax credits, increased research spending,
  and a requirement that electric utilities diversify their fuel mix with
  renewables through the so-called “renewable portfolio standard”?
• 5) Will the administration support strong new incentives and
  regulations to save energy and improve the country’s energy efficiency?
  Options include fuel economy standards, appliance efficiency standards,
  and higher taxes on gasoline and inefficient vehicles.
• 6) Has President Bush passed the “Schwarzenegger test”? The
  California governor’s decision to sign climate legislation last year was
  largely due to the case made by the state’s entrepreneurs, who rejected
  the notion that limiting global warming emissions would devastate the
  economy. They persuaded the governor that this would make the state a
  leader in 21st century energy technology, creating new businesses and
  jobs.

Worldwatch will issue a press statement on Wednesday, January 24, assessing the strength of the climate and energy segments of the State of the Union and indicating how President Bush fared on the six questions above.