We Made Our Bed Now We Have To Sleep In It

Give a beaver enough time and he will turn a stream into a pond, give coral enough time and they can turn a shallow sea into an island, some ants grow mold farms on leaves they cut from trees, trees trap soil to make a better environment for their seeds, humans like all these life forms have altered the environment to better suit themselves.

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We have contributed to widespread changes in the environment, not all of them good. We are preforming a grand scientific experiment on this planet. This has involved a lot of change to the natural world, and these changes have consequences. Beavers run out of trees, coral can’t live out of water, ants can remove all the leaves they depend on for life, humans too can bump up against the limits of the natural world. If you alter the natural world you cause changes in the cycles that govern the natural world. We have altered a lot of things about this planet and now, change is coming. We will need to adapt to both predicted and unexpected consequences of our alterations.

The role, pace and impact of regional and local environmental change will need to be factored into human decision processes, with careful attention paid to uncertainties, say Tim Killeen, National Science Foundation (NSF) assistant director for geosciences, and David Lightfoot, NSF assistant director for social, behavioral & economic sciences.

To identify the strategies best suited to cover replacement costs for lost services, or recover from the effects of natural hazards, it’s important to compare the impacts of various mitigation efforts, such as those for carbon management like “cap and trade” programs, say Killeen and Lightfoot.

To factor valuation of “ecosystem services”–what Earth’s resources offer humans–into economic activities in a way that provides critically important information about land and water use, NSF’s Directorates for Geosciences (GEO) and Social, Behavioral & Economic Sciences (SBE) have announced a focus on the impacts of humans and our economy on the environment.

The Directorates have issued a Dear Colleague Letter to the scientific community encouraging increased research, jointly supported by core programs in GEO and SBE, on the links among environment, society and the economy.

Especially sought are projects that address such areas as the impacts and adaptation of economic systems; the role of incentives in human behavior; environmental change and its impact on the evolution of human behavior; the interplay of environmental change and inequality of income and access to resources; and overcoming economic and political difficulties in implementing science-based mitigation strategies.

“Climate change will have significant impacts on many aspects of the Earth system,” says Killeen, “including carbon sequestration, water and air purification, fisheries and agricultural production and species habitats. Some climate-induced changes will occur gradually, while others will be abrupt.”

Adds Lightfoot, “Models show that changes in climate will greatly affect coastal regions, many of which have large urban populations. Climate change may alter the duration and magnitude of monsoonal rainfalls and river flooding. Communities will have to respond appropriately to these new stresses.”

These effects and many others, Killeen and Lightfoot state, have direct bearing on economic and policy decisions confronting individuals, groups, firms and governments at local, regional, national and global levels.

Humans are driven to make the world more habitable for themselves. But in the process we may have become victims of our own success. It is time we start taking a scientific and fact based approach to long term planning. We much begin to factor in the damage we have already done, but more than that.

Moving forward all human decision making must take into account the cost to the environment. All activities must be looked at in the context of long term survivability of the human race. It is no longer possible to simply hope that our actions will not have any effect until long after we are dead. It is time to start planning for the living, not the dead.