It may be too late to save the ice sheets. This sobering news is contained within the second of the four part report by the IPCC.
A critical meltdown of ice sheets and severe sea level rise could be inevitable because of global warming, the world’s scientists are preparing to warn their governments. New studies of Greenland and Antarctica have forced a United Nations expert panel to conclude there is a 50% chance that widespread ice sheet loss “may no longer be avoided” because of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Such melting would raise sea levels by four to six metres, the scientists say. It would cause “major changes in coastline and inundation of low-lying areas” and require “costly and challenging” efforts to move millions of people and infrastructure from vulnerable areas. The previous official line, issued in 2001, was that the chance of such an event was “not well known, but probably very low”.
The melting process could take centuries, but increased warming caused by a failure to cut emissions would accelerate the ice sheets’ demise, and give nations less time to adapt to the consequences. Areas such as the Maldives would be swamped and low-lying countries such as The Netherlands and Bangladesh, as well as coastal cities including London, New York and Tokyo, would face critical flooding.(via)
Are we entering a period of history where it will be a steady retreat from an angry ocean, that continues to rise and swallow coastal cities? Sceptics will claim that if it will take up to a thousand years, then why should we worry about it now? Well that’s a hard question to answer. What is the motivation of someone who will only live 100 years (if they are lucky) to do anything for the future that may happen 1000 years from now? I could also ask, why bother having a child, if you will most likely die before they accomplish many things in life, why bother saving money for a future that may not come, why bother doing anything that is forward looking? I don’t have the answer to these rather difficult questions. I do think however, that the genetic drive for the survival of our group should be driving us to action.
What if it doesn’t take 1000 years, what if it only takes 30 or 100? The Larson B ice shelf suddenly broke up, as have other glaciers around the world. Ice physics is hardly understood, we could be looking at the relatively rapid rise in sea levels. So rapid that we may not be able to make a graceful pullback from the oceans edge, we may instead be forced to chaoticly run from a rising ocean. Causing death and economic loss in the process.
Humans have always been bad at long term planning. If you are really thoughtful you might have a “five year plan.” We need to start thinking about 1000 year plans. Its like asking a fruit fly to plan out the next 6 months, but it is critically important that we begin to make long term plans, both for our own personal safety and the continued survivability of our planet.
Even though things may look bleak we can not throw our hands up and despair. We must take action, we must curb our carbon heavy lifestyle immediately. Renewable energy should be the only energy that is considered moving forward. Efforts to plant trees to sequester Co2 and even efforts to remove it from the atmosphere must continue and increase. Conservation also plays a key role.
We must shift our science and economic goals away from war and fighting and towards science and peace. Imagine how many wind turbines you could build with 8 billion dollars (the current cost of the war in Iraq PER MONTH). Americans will play a very big role in this shift, as we use a very large amount of the worlds resources, but this is a global problem. Everyone on this planet has to become committed to long term planning for survivability. Rich countries have to help poor cuontries to solve short term problems so that everyone can have the luxury of thinking long term.
It is becoming more and more obvious that our actions live on long after we are gone. As a species we must evolve our thinking to meet these challenges. I hope we can do so before it is too late.